The Arsenal vs Chelsea Community Shield “friendly” was a great preview into the madness descending down this weekend. So here we go, Soccerblog’s predictions on who will be the champion, the sides who qualify for the coveted Champions League, the Europa, the also rans and the relegated. Part One focuses on the top four, the creme de la creme, although Jose Mourinho will dispute that characterization because achieving fourth is akin to being a “specialist in failure”. Without much ado, today’s edition, the top four.
Soccerblog predictions:
1. Chelsea retains the title
The one side that is as mentally prepared as any to play all 38 matches. It’s an important distinction because winning the Premier League is not smashing your opponents 6-0 and then losing the next match 0-3. It’s about knowing how to win even when not playing well. The ability to marshal resources to last 9 months with over 50 matches to play. And the Blues are a side that know how to do that very efficiently. They have what Daniel Goldman calls “emotional intelligence”, a highly self aware side which knows fully well their strengths and weaknesses. It starts from the top. Jose Mourinho is a master motivator, a whip smart tactician who focuses match by match, and is virtually agnostic when it comes to the manner he wins as long as he wins. Function over form any time, every time. John Terry may have his flaws as a human being but as a captain, he’s near perfection.
In Cesc Fabregas, last season’s assist leader, Nemanja Matic, arguably the EPL’s most complete holding midfielder, and Diego Costa, a brute force running into the box scoring goals at will, the Blues retain their spine. In and out almost as decoy, Eden Hazard, now at the elite level, with his low centre of gravity capable of sudden changes in pace and direction which freeze defenders. The only way one can stop Hazard in full flow is to foul him which is why he earns so many penalties. The back four look solid and Branislav Ivanovic although by no means foolproof does score enough set piece goals to offset some notable momentary lapses of reason. Thibaut Courtois has in very short time, established himself as one of the world’s best shot stoppers displacing Petr Cech, another legend.
The areas of concern, yes, Chelsea is by no means flawless are up front. Costa is an injury risk and his stand ins, Loic Remy who has quite a bit of pace and finishing skill, is not ruthless enough. Falcao had a very forgettable, short lived Utd career overwhelmed by the physical nature of the league. Against the Gunners he was fairly anonymous. He seems to be missing that explosive spring and superb improvisation which made him so lethal at Atletico and AS Monaco. There are questions at the back with Terry getting on in years and Mourinho looking at John Stones as replacement. Kurt Zouma is an impressive presence being weaned slowly away from Cup appearances to regular league minutes. Ivanovic is not the speediest full back to track back, guilty of exposing Terry and the occasional face palm giveaway. Stylistically, Chelsea come in for a lot of flak with Mourinho resorting to monotonous grinding out of results when going up in the score sheet. Or parking the bus when it comes to stopping an opponent.
2. Arsenal run them close
Arsenal have over the years have had difficulties putting together two complete halves of the season. They are one half of the season side (there is schizophrenia as to which half that will be) which makes them never quite challenge for the top spot but they do well enough to claim fourth usually quite comfortably except in 2007 when Spurs ran them very, very close and it was tainted lasagna on the very last day which saved the Gunners from sliding out of the top four. An Arsenal season is never complete without a litany of injuries which torment and doom. Jack Wilshere, Theo Walcott, Aaron Ramsey, Kieran Gibbs, Mathieu Debuchy, Alex Oxlade Chamberlain, Mikel Arteta, Mesut Oezil are familiar to the treatment table and have spent months away in injury recuperation. Then there is the famous mental frailty which make them implode. The Gunners topped the league last season in dropping points from a winning position.
In some aspects, the side is the exact opposite of Chelsea lacking self awareness and the smarts to win matches. But something changed last season, clearly evident against City where Arsenal eschewed their usual practice of playing a high line and instead soaked pressure by dropping deeper into their own half. In doing so, City was allowed possession but had a hard time breaking down a compact defence and the Gunners were able to exploit the open spaces in midfield with sweeping and devastating counterattacks. Tactical readjustments give the Gunners a different look. The other thing is Alexis Sanchez of course. Scoring goals and lots of them in his first season is part of the story. The other part is Sanchez’s never give up spirit which permeated to the rest of Arsenal. Scrapping for the ball till the 90th minute, en route to scoring sublime goals with exhilarating displays of dribbling has a way of uplifting the whole side. Arsenal also discovered Frances Coquelin, who would have been out on loan to the Addicks if Arteta had not been injured. The French midfielder showed his tenacity in central midfield breaking up attacks and establishing tempo. Ditto, Hector Bellerin drafted after Debuchy suffered a horrible ankle injury, locking up the right back spot. Nacho Monreal was the most improved player as his tracking skills improved and his forays into the top third became more pronounced. Last season was a sort of template, into which the players are properly bedded in.
The engine room is full of talent and depth. In midfield, Arsenal are spoiled for choice. Choose Oezil, Cazorla, Sanchez, leave out Wilshere, Ramsey and the Ox. Then there is little Mozart. Up front, Walcott and Giroud give you a study in contrast. Wenger can keep Walcott in with his pace and directness now to match his finishing skills or you can get the more classic centreforward in Giroud with great hold up play, aerial ability, and knockdowns and flicks for others to score from. The most problematic area was goalkeeping and Wojciech Szczesny crystallized the situation with his bewildering display against Swansea. With Szcz benched, David Ospina was steady and sometimes even spectacular with his shot stopping but there were nervy moments during set pieces. With Petr Cech’s arrival, the Gunners have a world class custodian, not just someone who can save goals but also knows how to organize defences and as integral part of Chelsea’s title winning teams, knows what it takes to do just that.
3. Manchester City still potent but questions on defence remain
Manuel Pellegrini surely knows he’s living on borrowed time. City remain the league’s high rollers when it comes to spending. Coming a distant second to Chelsea and bombing out of the domestic Cup and European competitions was not a memorandum of success. The big news is Raheem Sterling, the $77m man, one of England’s most precocious talents and tantalizing shape shifter. He will partner Sergio Aguero whose nose for goals is impeccable and David Silva, a honey pot of seductive linkages. However, City is preternaturally reliant on the Argentinian and if there is a drop off in his production or a prolonged injury, Sterling with his 7 goals for Liverpool last season is hardly the answer. City also have Wilfried Bony who has some goals in his robust frame but probably not enough to offset that shortfall. Still, their top scoring attack remains the strong point and they should be able to reproduce that output with the necessary Aguero caveat.
Where City got caught flatfooted was in central midfield and central defence. It’s become a byword in subversive humour the club should send Yaya Toure a birthday cake in May or his head will not be screwed on right. For large portions of the season that was what happened as Toure became a liability, a virtual passenger as City lost to Arsenal, and an increasingly vulnerable side found themselves at odds against Liverpool, bottom dwellers Burnley and Crystal Palace before losing to Utd at Old Trafford. Vincent Kompany, long considered as the league’s best central defender was a shadow of himself and Eliaquim Mangala did very little to justify his $47m price tag. City which was closing on Chelsea early in the second half of the season saw a horrendous spell that had them looking nervously back at Arsenal, Utd, and even Liverpool. Luckily for them Aguero found his scoring touch, Joe Hart posted some spectacular saves, and the defence rallied to secure second.
4. Liverpool’s industriousness will secure them top four
Brendan Rodgers is seen as comic relief for simultaneously the most banal and abstruse of utterances. He’s almost always given credit for Liverpool’s 2013-14 season which was essentially underwritten by Luis Suarez. Which is why the sheen of success was brutally torn off the next season as Rodgers expensive acquisitions following the Suarez financial windfall did not deliver. Rodgers raid of Soton’s talent was seemingly done in the belief their success somehow would transfer through osmosis to Anfield. Only Adam Lallana was uncovered as genuine with Dejan Lovren becoming the butt of social media mirth and Ricky Lambert fading to the bench. Mario Balotelli was a luxury spend and the Italian had few goals in him. With a pallid attack, Liverpool ended up scoring a massive 49 goals less than the previous season.
What Rodgers has done better this season is to spend money on buying players who possess qualities of playing every minute of the 90 odd. James Milner is getting on in age but few doubt the winger’s desire to contest the ball. Roberto Firmino, the Brazilian striker bought from Hoffenheim does not come with a eyebrow raising scoring pedigree but he was also the assist leader in his Bundesliga side. Nathaniel Clyne, another Soton raidee is a constant motoring presence down the right flank, an attacking upgrade on Glen Johnson with the upside of actually having defensive skills. Those who equate Christian Benteke to another Andy Carroll don’t know what they are talking about. The former Aston Villa striker for his big frame matches his aerial qualities with quick feet and can deliver 15 goals quite easily. In Phillip Coutinho they have an excellent and combative provider who can also score some outrageous goals from distance. Before we forget, there is too Daniel Sturridge missing most of last season and now expected back in mid October from his hip surgery, the heart of the redoubtable SSS (Suarez- Sturridge- Sterling), and Jordan Ibe, another exciting club prospect.
The Gerrard factor: One of the most overlooked aspects of Liverpool’s last season was the amount of oxygen spent on the club’s talisman and Rodgers desperation to factor him. Adding him contributed largely to the pedestrian and static nature of the midfield with Gerrard slowing down the game. With his MLS departure, the midfield will be anchored with the quicker Jordan Henderson and the tougher tackling Emre Can, both seen as having bright futures. Henderson is being groomed to fill Gerrard’s shoes and this will undoubtedly speed up his development.
Next part: Europa League contender and the rest of the EPL top half