The USA haven’t exactly inspired with their football. Short of ideas against a bright, attacking Australia in the first half of their opener, till Megan Rapinoe shifted gear and the Matildas ran out of gas, then struggling to a stalemate against Sweden and an organized defense, finally finishing off the Nigerians thanks again to a Rapinoe pinpoint set piece for Wambach’s strike. The USA topped the so called group of death. Now, it becomes easier in the group of 16 as they face Colombia, the third place finisher from Group F, with just about a 5% chance of pulling off an upset. In the quarterfinal, it will be either China or Cameroon, the former with its best days behind and the latter, a greenhorn to the world stage. Easy as pie (on paper), with China and Cameroon, rating a 9% and 4% chance of making it to the semi-finals, respectively.
According to 538’s Women’s Soccer Power Index, the USA has the highest probability of progressing to the semi-finals (85%) and the finals (47%) compared to its bitterest rivals including Germany, France, Japan, Brazil, and Sweden. The first two are favoured to meet each other in the quarterfinal, if Germany can get past Sweden, a very tough encounter and France overcomes the hard running South Koreans. Either way, the USA in all probability faces a worse for wear, France or Germany, in the semi-finals. From the lower quadrants, the Nadashiko, the Canarinhas, and the Maple Leafs, facing less stiff opposition have roughly equal odds of a final appearance.
What made the US odds on favourite to make it to the finals despite their relatively insipid performances? FIFA’s love of TV ratings which saw the Red Sea parting for the USA.