The CIES Football Observatory has developed an econometric model that calculates the “right transfer price” for a player in the big 5 leagues. As per their website: The database comprises 1500 players followed since 2009. The model takes into account a “multitude of variables relating to the following areas: age, length of remaining contract, position, player performance at club level for the most recent and previous seasons, results of the clubs for which players are employed, as well as players’ international experience and results of national team represented.”
As per the CIES, the fee paid for Angel Di Maria was inflated by + €30m (£24m/ $40m), James Rodriguez + €25m (£20m/$33m), and David Luiz €+29m (£23m/$38m). Not hard to fathom those figures. Liverpool will be relieved to know Mario Balotelli was actually very good value for money underpaying Milan – €16m (£13m/$21m). The algorithm does not distinguish between open field goals/ set pieces and spot kicks obviously.
For Arsenal, the good news is Danny Welbeck and Mathieu Debuchy are just priced right. Not so Alexis Sanchez. Or Calum Chambers. Man Utd, not only have an overpriced Di Maria but have also forked out too much for Luke Shaw and Ander Herrera. Liverpool have overcompensated Soton for Adam Lallana and Dejan Lovren as well as Sevilla for Alberto Moreno. Not sure about the last one, not after that spectacular run and majestic finish against Spurs. They also lost out a bit on Luis Suarez. The most canny club for business, Roman Abramovich’s flagship, Chelsea, bamboozling PSG with David Luiz and paying less for Cesc Fabregas and Diego Costa.
What about Radamel Falcao? The CIES values him at €30m (£24m/$40m) but because he’s on loan they have been unable to rate him. However, Utd have the option to sign him on a permanent deal from Monaco which could add £35m or upwards to his loan amount, i.e, all said and done probably in the region of £50m (€63m/$82m). Have fun with the rest of the table.